A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
